Extreme weather events due to climate change will increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, resulting in a higher demand for drugs that prevent and treat such conditions, according to a recent RAND report.
“If the anticipated increase in demand for these drugs is not planned for, already strained medical supply chains will be further strained, resulting in poor health outcomes among affected patient populations and additional costs to health systems,” wrote the report authors.
For the report, which was funded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the authors established a systems dynamics model to estimate the impact of climate change on the population’s health and drug demand, with a focus on four conditions: cardiovascular disease, asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer’s disease. The drugs used to treat the four conditions include metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively.
The model produces estimates of future disease prevalence and drug demand from 2024 to 2040 across five climate scenarios, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. The scenarios estimate future greenhouse gas emissions under different levels of adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.
The report found climate change will likely lead to:
- An increase in demand for the cardiovascular disease drug metoprolol among younger age groups because of higher cardiovascular disease prevalence; however, under severe climate change scenarios, there may be a slight decrease in demand (by 0.4 percent to 0.9 percent) for metoprolol among older age groups due to higher mortality rates.
- An increase in demand for the asthma drug albuterol (by 1.5 percent to 3.0 percent) across most age groups due to a heightened prevalence of asthma.
- An increase in demand for the ESRD drug heparin (by 4.4 percent to 8.5 percent) across all age groups because of higher prevalence of ESRD.
- An increase in demand for the Alzheimer's disease drug donepezil (by 17.5 percent to 33.1 percent) among adults ages 55 and older.
The systems dynamics model can help prevent drug shortages, according to the study authors, who emphasized the importance in informing policies to develop proactive strategies to identify supply chain risks and ensure sufficient drug supply regardless of different climate scenarios.